Some pre-Oscar thoughts:
Peter Jackson should win Best Director. There’s no competition in that category. Zero. Nobody else devoted 7 years of their life to a movie, and I doubt many of them could get the high quality Jackson did should they attempt it.
Everything after that is secondary. I think LORD OF THE RINGS will win, but it will have some competition. The Academy wants MYSTIC RIVER to win something, after all. If Johnny Depp walks away with Best Actor (and how I hope he does) then they’ll feel really bad about Sean Penn and Clint Eastwood winning nothing.
I likewise hope Tim Robbins doesn’t win, but that might be more politically-motivated than performance-related.
I’m rooting for Bill Murray to win Best Actor, because I want to see his acceptance speech ramble on for five minutes making fun of everyone in the place. Then I want to see Crystal’s reaction to it. (Probably down on his knees bowing to the greatness that is Murray’s speech.)
I’ll give Copolla the Best Screenplay award while I’m at it, since it won’t win the Best Movie.
FINDING NEMO will win Animated Film in a laugher.
I’m hoping the girl from WHALERIDER wins, just to see an acceptance speech from a teenager. And it’ll make Roger Ebert happy.
I suppose it’s another laugher for Charlize Theron as Best Actress. Let’s see how she destroys her career after that, a la Halle Berry and Cuba Gooding Jr. (Think ‘genre films.’)
Let’s just hope Crystal can go five minutes without a Michael Jackson or Martha Stewart joke.