It’s my least favorite time of the IDOL season right now. It’s a full two hour episode tonight. I have 12 singers to write up tomorrow. And this is the point at which I embarrass myself completely with predictions as to who will win and the order the contestants will fall, only to be proven absolutely wrong by the third week.

As in previous seasons, I’m not going to give exact exit dates. I’ll do groups of three. And this is all predicated on things not changing drastically, which never happens. While I don’t think we’ll see any scandals rocking the IDOL world at this stage in the season (oh, Mario Vosquez, you alleged perv), there’s bound to be at least one brilliant contestant who will fall flat on his or her face in the first couple of weeks, and one or two who rise from mediocrity to capture America’s imagination and heart. But, hey, it’s all a horse race, and maybe — just maybe — I can look brilliant if I pull something off here.

Let’s start with the easy predictions. The first three contestants to go will be Haley Scarnato, Brandon Rogers, and Stephanie Edwards. That last one might be a little controversial, but I don’t think Sanjaya is going to leave us this soon. He’s got the votes, no matter how horribly he sings from week to week. I don’t think Haley or Brandon have developed that kind of loyal fanbase, and that will prove to be their undoing. In the early rounds of the season, the vote is split far too many ways to rely on talent alone. You need a strong base to start with. I don’t think any of these three singers have energized a base strongly enough to keep them around. Plus, I think Stephanie will still be the first of the divas to go.

The next three to go will Jordin Sparks, Gina Glocksen, and Sanjaya Malakar. Yes, I think we’re going to lose Sanjaya before the halfway point of the season. As American has fewer choices, people will vote more for the talent than the fan favorites. I also think Jordin will be the first of this group to go.

Phil Stacey will go out in sixth place, as the military vote is overwhelmed by sheer numbers for the others. Chris Richardson follows him out, as the Justin Timberlake act doesn’t age well and a mix of song styles does him in.

Then things get very difficult. We’re down to Chris Sligh, Melinda Doolittle, Lakisha Jones, and Blake Lewis.

Blake goes out in fourth place, Sligh falls in third, and Melinda and Lakisha battle it out for a Diva Duel unlike anything you’ve ever seen in IDOL history. Melinda wins for personality alone. America loves the underdog.

Am I playing this too safe? I haven’t called for any huge upsets, really. I’m ignoring the fact that the diva vote will get split, and that the odds of Melinda and Lakisha being the final two are probably much more remote than people give them credit for today. I have a gut feeling that Lakisha will probably fall much sooner. We know she can do BIG songs where she gets to blow the roof off the joint, but is that act going to get old? Aren’t we going to get bored of the same old, same old?

Maybe this is the season of the huge upset, where a beatboxer can win it all? Blake has been strong enough so far that it’s not unreasonable to predict a Top Two finish for him, either. Chris Sligh is Mr. Popular. He’s got a committed fanbase, and that’s only going to grow, assuming he doesn’t make too many singing missteps along the way. LaKisha doesn’t have the personality to match the voice, and this is as much a popularity contest as a singing one. I think that will be her ultimate undoing, whether it’s at the Kodak Theater on Finals night, or some weeks before.

But what the heck. I’ll stick with what I predicted, but I’m happy to include those cavaets.